Moldova: EU Accession Vote Revives Unhealed Wounds From Soviet Past.

Many people may not realize that Russian troops are currently stationed in Moldova, a country that applied for EU membership in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with which it shares a long and complicated border.

Last weekend, Moldova made international headlines after President Maia Sandu called for a referendum to move forward with EU membership talks. To her surprise, she won by only a slim margin of 50.4%, just enough to allow her to amend the constitution for this purpose.

But why does this matter, and how did we get here? To understand the significance of this referendum, we first need a sense of Moldova's historical background and geography.

We can start with the Ottoman Empire, which ceded the Moldovan region to the Russian Empire. Over time, this region switched hands between Romania and the Ukrainian SSR until the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact—a non-aggression agreement between Nazi Germany and the USSR—led Romania to cede the region to the Soviet Union. This created the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1940.

As this history shows, the territory we now know as Moldova has long been governed by various powers, each leaving its mark on the region's identity and national cohesion.

After the Soviet Union dissolved and Moldova emerged as an independent state, a region within it called Transnistria attempted to secede, resulting in a military conflict that involved support from Russia. A ceasefire agreement followed, establishing a security zone overseen by a peacekeeping force made up of Transnistrian, Moldovan, and Russian personnel.

While initially not seen as a direct threat, Russia’s ongoing military presence has since raised concerns. Today, approximately 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed in Moldova, primarily at a former Soviet base housing around 22,000 tons of aging ammunition—a potentially dangerous stockpile, considering the Hiroshima bomb in 1945 was just 16,000 tons.

Moldova has voiced concerns about this "frozen" conflict for years. And now, amid escalating tensions from Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Moldova’s strategic location could prove critical. Transnistria, positioned near the Black Sea corridor, would serve as a buffer should Russian forces push westward. If Russia successfully advances along Ukraine’s coast to connect with Transnistria, it could isolate Ukraine’s access to the sea, dealing a severe blow to its economy by halting vital exports.

Given the risks, NATO and the EU are watching closely. With Moldova’s location and this complex history, stabilizing the region will be crucial. Strengthening alliances with Moldova will help prevent further Russian encroachment and support the region’s movement toward the EU.